The five assumptions a lender will actually test

Credit assessors read hundreds of plans. They don't audit your spreadsheet — they probe the handful of inputs that, if wrong, make everything downstream wrong too.

1. Gross margin against industry

A margin two or three points above the sector norm is fine if you can explain it. Ten points above, with no explanation, reads as a plug. Benchmark it, then justify the variance in a sentence.

2. Payroll load, not just salaries

Superannuation, payroll tax, employer NI, CPP/EI, leave provisions and workers' cover routinely add 15–30% on top of headline wages depending on jurisdiction. Plans that quote base salaries only are the most common miss we see.

3. Working capital timing

Days receivable, days payable and stock turns decide whether a profitable business runs out of cash in month four. Profit and liquidity are different questions and lenders ask the second one.

4. GST/VAT remittance cycle

Indirect tax you've collected isn't yours. Modelling BAS or VAT quarters as a real cash outflow on the right date is the difference between a plan and a wish.

5. Debt serviceability under stress

Expect the plan to be re-run at 70–80% of forecast revenue. If interest coverage collapses at that level, the application struggles regardless of the base case.

• Benchmark every assumption before you defend it
• Show the stressed case yourself — don't wait to be asked
• Keep an audit trail of what you overrode and why